Drought and the collapse of Teotihuacan
While archaeologists have been working for decades to figure out the collapse of Teotihuacan, in come the geologists to decide the matter with a graph of rainfall patterns from a cave >300 km away (Lachniet et al 2012). Guess what? Drought caused the collapse of Teotihuacan ((sarcasm)). Although the authors claimed to "test hypotheses of climate and cultural change in the highland Basin of Mexico," (p.259), I didn't see any testing in the paper. Instead of testing a model, they employ what Lewis Binford called a post-hoc accomodative argument. They generated some findings, then scratched their head and thought about how to interpret them without reference to explicit hypotheses. They should have derived the implications for different collapse scenarios ahead of time, and tested for these. What is the most likely timing and nature for a killer drought to generate urban catastrophe? A sudden major drought, or a prolonged less severe event, or a sequence of sporadic ...